San Diego Stays Put? What Lower US Migration Means for Us
Recent research highlights a significant drop in U.S. migration rates, a long-term trend indicating fewer Americans are relocating. For San Diegans, this national shift isn’t just an abstract statistic; it carries unique implications for our local housing market, economy, and community dynamics.
The National Picture: America on Pause
New research from the Economic Innovation Group (EIG) confirms a decades-long decline in U.S. mobility. Fewer people are moving across states or even within their counties, driven by escalating housing costs nationwide, the widespread adoption of remote work, and an aging population. This trend suggests a less dynamic labor market and potentially slower economic adjustments, as individuals become more rooted in their current locales.
San Diego’s Unique Lens: Our Local Impact
In a desirable yet expensive city like San Diego, the national trend of “staying put” manifests with specific challenges and opportunities.
Housing: The Cost of Staying Put
San Diego’s notoriously competitive housing market means high costs significantly deter both new arrivals and existing residents from relocating. Lower overall migration can reduce housing turnover, potentially worsening supply shortages. This makes finding affordable homes even harder for those seeking to move within the county or establish roots here.
Remote Work: Friend or Foe?
Remote work offers flexibility, allowing many San Diegans to retain high-paying jobs while enjoying our city’s lifestyle, even if their employer is elsewhere. This helps retain local talent. However, it also attracts workers who contribute to housing demand without directly expanding the local job market, potentially increasing affordability pressures.
An Aging Population & Community Stability
As the U.S. population ages, people tend to move less frequently. For San Diego, a popular retirement destination, this means existing older residents are more likely to age in place. While fostering community stability, it increases demand on local services, healthcare, and infrastructure catering to an older demographic, potentially impacting housing availability for younger families.
Local Implications & What’s Next
For San Diego, this shift towards lower migration rates signals a future with a more stable, yet potentially less fluid, population. It could mean less labor market dynamism and different pressures on our housing market. Community infrastructure, from schools to urban planning, will need to adapt to a population that changes less frequently, requiring new long-term strategies.
| Traditional Reason to Move | Impact of “Staying Put” in San Diego |
|---|---|
| New Job Opportunity | Remote work enables job retention without relocation, affecting local job market churn. |
| Lower Cost of Living | High SD costs deter moves in/out; perceived value of living here outweighs move costs elsewhere. |
| Family Proximity | Aging in place reduces moves to be near family, while family may move to established SD residents. |
| Change of Scenery/Lifestyle | San Diego’s high quality of life makes leaving for a change less appealing; desire to stay strong. |
As San Diegans, it’s crucial to observe local housing inventory, job growth, and demographic shifts. Local policymakers must address housing affordability and ensure our infrastructure supports a less mobile, potentially older, population. Understanding these dynamics is key for our community to adapt and thrive.
- Is San Diego seeing a similar drop in migration?
Yes, national trends of reduced interstate and inter-county movement apply to San Diego, indicating an overall decline in local mobility compared to past decades. - How do high housing costs play a role here?
San Diego’s high housing costs are a primary factor deterring both new residents and current residents from moving, directly contributing to lower migration rates. - Does remote work help or hurt San Diego’s economy?
Remote work retains local talent and attracts high-income earners. However, it can also inflate housing demand without growing the local job market proportionally, potentially exacerbating affordability. - What impact does an aging population have on local migration?
Older individuals generally move less. This means San Diego’s existing older residents are more likely to age in place, increasing demand on local services and potentially affecting housing availability for other demographics.
For us in San Diego, understanding this national shift toward “staying put” means recognizing that our community might grow differently, our housing market will operate under new pressures, and our collective long-term planning needs to reflect a less transient population. Let’s work together to shape a resilient and welcoming San Diego for all its long-term residents.
San Diego feels effect as America stays put
